• Elections in the U.S. and CPI may be bullish factors later this year.
  • The PCE Price Index, which is due on Friday, may offer relief.

BTC Price Index and Live Chart – CoinDesk”>(BTC) has carved out a double-top price pattern, signaling a potential bearish trend change ahead of key data release that could influence the Fed’s interest rate path.

Bitcoin’s price has been on a roller coaster ride this month. After surging up to almost $70,000 and approaching the all-time March high, it has now fallen to $63,000. has decoupled from Nasdaq’s continued upward movement, due largely to faster sales from miners, as well as profit-taking from investors at lifetime highs.

Double tops are a bearish pattern of technical analysis that consists of two peaks and a valley, which usually appear after a significant uptrend. The second peak indicates exhaustion of an uptrend, and the breaching of the low between the two peaks confirms a change in trend.

“Technically speaking, Bitcoin appears to be following a double-top formation while the support level is currently being tested. This chart should be the base case until it is invalidated. This chart formation could easily drop to $50,000, if not $45,000,” Markus Thielen said, founder of 10x Research.

Thielen said, “Yes, U.S. elections and CPI will be bullish in the second half of this year. But we could still see a steeper corrective.”

BTC’s Double Top (10x Research) (10x Research)

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May, will likely show the slowest month-to-month increase in the core number in more than three years. This would strengthen the case for new Fed rate cuts in September, possibly putting a ceiling on risk assets like bitcoin.

“[Recent] strong economic data have forced [bond] rates higher and precious metals to fall on Friday.” Greg Magadini said that this continues to be a barrier for digital assets such as crypto in the weekly Amberdata newsletter.

Magadini said, “This week there will be multiple Fed governors talking about GDP and PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator) on Friday.

Bloomberg surveyed economists who expect no change to the PCE index, and only a 0.1% increase in the core PCE. This would amount to a 2.6% annual advance in both headline and core numbers. The core PCE increase projected, excluding energy and food, will be the smallest in years.

Parikshit Miishra is the editor.