The bear market for bitcoin (BTC), which lasted from 2022-2023, was brutal. I held bitcoin during the bear market in 2018-2019 and can confirm that it was equally painful, despite its shorter duration and less dramatic maximum drop.

This difficulty could be due to my increased financial exposure. Maybe it was the disappointment of not receiving better mainstream media coverage. I still found myself talking about the same old concerns (prohibition and quantum computing) as before.

I am glad to see this bear’s tail end. The bitcoin bear market in 2022-2023 may be over, even though nothing is guaranteed. Here’s why:

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Bitcoin halving is near. This halving reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are issued. It happens approximately every four years. Both of the previous halvings triggered major bull markets in bitcoin. It’s easy to understand why. A downward shock in supply forces a price adjustment upwards, even if demand remains constant. Demand and supply always determine the price. Next halving will be less than one year away.

There are no more tourists. The momentum crowd always gathers once the bull is halving-induced and starts to run. They see bitcoin prices rising and pile in. The bubble eventually bursts, and the traders are washed out within months of the peak. As evidenced by the average age of Bitcoin unspent transactions outputs (UTXOs), we’ve passed the washout stage. The tourists have left, but the HODLers are still there.

Bitcoin’s price has not dropped further because of more bad news. Terra, Three Arrows Capitals, Celsius Networks, BlockFis, Voyager Digitals, FTXs and other companies all failed. This year, the bankruptcy of Genesis as well as worries about DCG and Binance did not bring bitcoin to a new low. The last sellers had already been wiped out. DCG owns CoinDesk as well as Genesis, Grayscale and Genesis.

The cycles repeat: Bitcoin will eventually outgrow the four-year cycle. It’s déjà vu until then. In the bear market for bitcoin in 2014-2015 the price fluctuated between $350 and $200, before finally capitulating at $200. In the bear market for bitcoin in 2018-2019 the price fluctuated around $6,000 before finally cappingitulating at $3,200. It stayed there for several months. In the bear market for bitcoin in 2022-2023 the price fluctuated between $28,000 and $16,000, before finally cappingitulation. In all three cases, the price followed the same pattern: a high, a series of low price highs lasting several months and then a final capitulation by over 40%.

Read more: The History of Tech Stocks is Repeated: How to Apply What We Know about the Market

What is the future? I don’t predict short-term prices. If bitcoin’s four year cycle repeats itself, as I expect, then certain things will be true.

Bitcoin’s price will likely never return to $16K again. After returning to its pre-capitulation low, the price of bitcoin never returned back down. It almost reached the low one cycle ago, but a COVID-19 pandemic forced a massive liquidation of the market. Next bitcoin halving will be less than one year away. Bitcoin’s price is likely to have bottomed out if there hasn’t been a major event of liquidation.

Bitcoin is a regulatory teflon. Bitcoin’s resistance to regulatory pressure has been proven. Since years, it’s been obvious that bitcoin is not a financial instrument but a commodity. Even Gary Gensler the current Securities and Exchange Commission chair, who is the most aggressive and active chairman I have seen in my career, admits there is one crypto asset that is clearly a commodity. He is referring to bitcoin. The SEC, with or without him will continue to take actions that suggest the vast majority digital assets are securities. This risk is not limited to bitcoin.

Financial advisers and institutions have a severe under-allocation to bitcoin. My involvement with Swan Advisor Services has allowed me to confirm that financial advisors, and their clients, are under-allocating to bitcoin. They had good reasons for this positioning in previous cycles, such as a lack reasonable products and significant risks of regulation. These problems are still largely present in the digital asset market as a whole. For bitcoin, these problems are mostly solved. In the next bull market, I anticipate that financial advisors will adopt bitcoin in large numbers.

Standard Chartered Bank: Bitcoin price may hit $100K by year end

So, what’s next? Financial advisors should educate their clients on the benefits of using bitcoin as part of their investment strategy and assist them in implementing bitcoin allocations into their portfolios. Bitcoin bear markets are good times to accumulate bitcoin. The end of a bear market can be a good time to add an asset that is truly unique to a diversified portfolio. The next bitcoin bull run has probably just begun.

Disclaimer: Andrew’s information is provided for educational and informative purposes only. It should not be taken as financial advice.

Henry Bond edited the book.