Many of us are familiar with this graph that compares internet adoption and crypto adoption.

(World Bank, Crypto.com)

Crypto’s rapid growth is so similar to that of the Internet in the 1990s, it’s possible to make stunning predictions about what digital assets will look like.

If crypto follows a similar curve, it would reach 5 billion users around 2047, assuming no population growth. And say 6 billion given a href=”https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population#::text=The%20world%20population%20is%20projected,and%2010.4%20billion%20by%202100. If crypto follows a similar curve, it would hit 5 billion users around 2047, assuming no population growth, and, say, 6 billion given predicted population growth.

What can we learn from these numbers?

Many people in the financial industry take years to adopt what we consider basic financial technology. Crypto is not a basic technology.

We should question the growth of crypto beyond the early adopters, when we see that less than half of the world’s population uses mobile banking. This is 26 years after the launch of this simple technology.

Crypto may not reach 5 billion users in 2047, even with the population increase. A more detailed analysis is required, but I believe that with the digitalization of traditional banking, a conservative estimate would be between 2 and 3 billion users.

Remember that crypto must beat (or join in) the current method of doing things. This is , still advancing, and not yet fully implemented.

Nick Baker is the editor.