BTC Price Index and Live Chart – CoinDesk”>(BTC) fell 7% on Wednesday, with reports of an analyst’s opinion on the expected U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval later this month contributing to a flush of highly-levered futures tracking the largest cryptocurrency.

Although professional analysts are mixed about the market impact, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision is expected on Jan. 15. The crypto community also predicts a positive outcome, and they use Polymarket to make their predictions.

One user who appeared to have purchased 2,800 bets “yes” on a positive outcome wrote: “ETF denialists are crypto’s flat-earthers.”

Users can bet on sports, politics and pop culture. Prices are based on the probability that an event will occur and range between $0 and 99 cents. They resolve to $1 once a bet has been placed.

The “Bitcoin ETF Approved by Jan 15? Bet” has been a popular one, attracting almost $1 million from hundreds of users.

This market will settle to “Yes” if any Bitcoin ETF spot receives approval by the SEC before January 15, 2024 at 11:59:59 PM ET. The conditions of the wager state that if this market is not resolved to ‘No’, it will be. The SEC will provide the primary source of information for this market. However, credible reporting and a consensus may also be used.

Polymarket is seeing an increase in side bets about the approval of a Bitcoin ETF. (Polymarket)

Analysts at ETFs have given a 90% probability of approval. This is similar to the 83% bets that are in favor.

Polymarket users’ comments indicate that even those who bet against the decision expect the ETF to eventually be approved, but not before the wagering deadline.

The ETF decision is a major factor in the direction of bitcoin trades, and has been for many years. The funding rates of bullish bitcoin bets reached records earlier this week. This indicates a greater appetite to gain exposure to the asset, regardless of costs.

Sheldon Reback is the editor.