Good morning. Here’s what’s happening:

Bitcoin prices: Why is bitcoin moving away from $30,000?

Insights A freely convertible Chinese Yuan is required for a stablecoin. This is not likely to happen any time soon.

Bitcoin Is Looking At A Bull Market In 2024, But Is $120,000 Realistic

As Asia begins its trading day, bitcoin is still hovering around $30,000, while ether remains flat. Coinglass data indicates that, in the past 12 hours there were slightly more liquidations of longs than liquidations of shorts. $7 million longs have been liquidated and $6.73 millions shorts.

In a CoinDesk note, Ether Chen, Bybit’s lead financial engineer, said that the market was on alert, waiting for signs of price increases following a slowdown in rate hikes or pauses during the second half of this year. This would be marked by a liquidity inflow.

Chen stated that Bybit’s Team expects the market to recover in the fourth quarter. However, a bull market may not be realized until 2024. This recovery is dependent on the end of rate increases, the halving of BTC and the resolution to regulatory storms.

Tim Frost, CEO, Yield App, a digital wealth platform, points out that although inflation is slowing, the Federal Reserve has not slowed down. Frost also dismisses a report by Standard Chartered stating that bitcoin would reach $120,000 before the end of the year.

“For crypto assets this is likely to mean continued range trading at current levels. Bitcoin is currently holding close to $30,000, which is an increase of nearly 100% from the $16,540 it began the year with in January. There are very few assets that can perform so well in a bear market. Savvy traders who have been trading for years will probably have made a lot of money on BTC.

Frost believes that a bullish market will be on the horizon in 2024, regardless of whether Standard Chartered is right about its price prediction.

He concludes: “The long-range consensus is that crypto will enter the next bull market by 2024, following a year of consolidation. Behind closed doors, massive innovation is paving a way for the next wave in crypto adoption.”

The Biggest Gainers

Biggest Losers

Why We Won’t Be Seeing a CNY Stablecoin

Circle’s CEO Jeremy Allaire argues a stablecoin pegged the Chinese Yuan would be a better option compared to a Central Bank Digital Currency.

A yuan-based stablecoin will not happen, just as a Chinese CBDC won’t challenge the dollar.

Why? The free conversion of the yuan is against the core principle of Beijing’s monetary policies.

The People’s Bank of China controls the exchange rate of yuan. It keeps it in a tight band, and does not allow it to float on international markets. China can maintain control of its export prices as well as its domestic economy. It also means the yuan cannot be used outside of China, unlike the Euro or USD. There are strict controls as to how much money you can take out.

You will need to give up more control if you want to see your currency used globally.

In a 2022 speech, the IMF’s first deputy managing director Gita Gopinath said that these traits are not those of a world currency. As of January 2022, the yuan was used in only 3.2% of global payment.

Gopinath was cited as saying that “if a country aspires to be a world currency, it would require, you know… basically fully and freely mobilized capital, full liberalization of capital accounts, and full convertibility in exchange rate.”

Currency manipulation is a controversial issue in U.S. – China relations. In 2019, the U.S. Department of the Treasury branded the country as a currency manipulator.

You know who else was on Washington’s radar as a currency manipulater? Taiwan.

Taiwan, unlike China, does not actively intervene in order to artificially keep the New Taiwan Dollar, or TWD, low so as to increase exports. Taiwan has instead been known for intervening in order to prevent a rapid appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD), which could harm their export-driven economic system.

The issue has existed since 1989 when the U.S. Senate’s subcommittee for international trade held a hearing about currency manipulation.

David Mulford, the Office of International Affairs’ Under Secretary-Designate at the time, Department of the Treasury noted the massive intervention by Taiwan Central Bank in the foreign exchange markets, as well as the lack of appreciation of the exchange rate despite Taiwan having large external surpluses.

Taipei, for its part denies it is a currency manipulator and has capital controls. It points to the fact that foreign investment can freely flow into its stock market as well as the conversion of foreign currencies at its shores.

If there is one thing that Taipei, and Beijing have in common, it’s that neither central bank wants to give up control of its currency to the market.

Important events.

8:30 p.m. HKT/SGT(12:30 p.m. UTC): U.S. Consumer Price Index June/MoM/YoY

CoinDesk TV

If you haven’t seen it yet, here is the latest episode of First Mover on CoinDesk TV.

Justin Sun, TRON founder, Huobi global advisor, and First Mover host, discussed the state of crypto regulations, Hong Kong’s outlook, and more. Bitcoin (BTC), which is currently trading at $30,000. Rich Rosenblum, co-founder of GSR Markets and president of the company, gave his analysis on crypto markets. The European Commission will release its metaverse strategy later today. Metaverse EU editor Patrick Grady revealed his expectations.

Bitcoin Settles Down After a Tumultuous First Half in 2023: July is historically one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. However, its price has been range-bound this month.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF application takes surveillance to the next level: A crypto exchange is required to share trading information, including personal data such as customer names and addresses, under an Information-Sharing agreement, which does not appear to be included in public Bitcoin ETF filings.

As inflows slow amid regulatory pressures, the Ether Staking ratio nears a key milestone: According to blockchain data, investors committed almost 20% of their ETH tokens into staking contracts.

Why Twitter rivals could not compete with Threads for 100 million users: The network effects and ease of use are the key factors. Emily Parker, of CoinDesk, says that many people don’t really care about privacy and decentralization.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Bitcoin Nothingburger: A candidate is not necessarily biased because he has BTC.

James Rubin is the editor.