QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto options trading company, expects a deeper fall in the ether/bitcoin ratio (ETH/BTC), following the impending Shapella hardfork, also known as the Shanghai upgrade.

“ETH/BTC broke through the key support level at 0.658, and could potentially head back towards 0.0553 as continued spot selling pressure in thin market for days following Shapella leads further bearish price action on ETH,” QCP Capital’s market insights team told CoinDesk.

Due to lingering concerns that investors might rush to liquidate coins following Shapella’s withdrawals of staked ether, the ETH/BTC ratio fell 13.7% this year.

Some analysts believe that the selling pressure will be spread over several days to allow buyers to absorb selling pressure while prices remain steady. QCP suggests otherwise.

QCP stated that “we fail to see the bullish case for this event” and noted that those at the front [in withdrawals] will likely sell spot, while those further back (in perps/futures) will be hedging via Perps/futures if it has not already.

After the upgrade, users cannot immediately withdraw their entire stack of more than 18 million staked Ethereum. Only a little over 1,000,000 ETH can be withdrawn immediately after the upgrade. According to K33 research, troubled entities such as crypto lender Celsius may sell its staked Ethereum balance of 158.176 ETH in order to recover at most a portion of creditors funds.

Edited and spelled out by Parikshit Moishra.